SCC Preview: Camping World RV 400

I know that's a theoretical question, and the answer is usually based on whether the outcome was favorable to the person answering it. Nevertheless, it's true. Look back at Super Bowl XLII. For me, a fan of neither the Giants nor the Patriots, it was great to see such a big upset. Patriots fans? Not so much. But wins like that are what make sports great.

The winner of the first 2008 Chase race was not Kyle Busch or Carl Edwards, the two dominant drivers this season. It wasn't Jimmie Johnson, who was looking for his third win in a row. It was the 16 car driven by Greg Biffle, who passed Johnson late and held him off just long enough to get his first checkered flag this season. Biffle's win, along with a lot of bad luck for Busch, helped the Chase become a little more interesting. Now there is a little guy, so to speak, to root for. It isn't just a three-man chase between Busch, Johnson and Edwards.

So does Biffle have what it takes to win the championship? As an ardent Biffle fan, I would love to say yes, but ultimately I think he falls short. He had his best shot in 2005, and a bad finish at Texas probably cost him the title. This year he has the car, team and a set of tracks that fit his skills, but he just seems to have those one or two bad races. The ones where he just misses his setup or an engine blows. But it will be much more fun to root for the little guy and hope for the upset. In fact, it could be the stuff of NASCAR legend.

Carl Edwards (Market value: 23.3) didn't have the car to win at Loudon, but he still mustered a respectable third-place finish, which should put fantasy owners and NASCAR drivers on notice that the 99 team is one of the two favorites to win the title. Now the series heads from a track where Edwards had no real history of success to a track where he sports four straight finishes in the top three, including a win in this very race last year. He must be considered one of the two favorites this week, along with …

… Jimmie Johnson (23.3), who is the co-leader in the championship standings with Edwards. Johnson has three wins and eight top-10s in 13 Dover starts and finished seventh at this track earlier this year. He has finished either first or second in the past three Sprint Cup races, and if Loudon had been another 10 laps, he probably would have won his third race in a row. Johnson and Edwards will be there at the end unless they meet with some disastrous misfortune.

Martin Truex Jr. (19.0) had a fine finish (seventh) at Loudon, and was contending for a top-5 spot much of the race. This week we should see more of the same. Truex has one win and three top-10s in his five Dover starts, and a 13th in one of the two non-top-10 starts. He's going to run well here. This team has a lot of confidence when it comes to Loudon and Dover, and that will translate into a great finish at the Monster Mile.

Mark Martin (19.0) doesn't run every race, which would be tough for some drivers to manage, since racing is very much a rhythm sport. Drivers get into a routine, on the track and off, and any disruptions to that routine can distract them. Martin takes weeks off, as he did this past week at Loudon, but that never seems to bother him. He has top-10 finishes in each of his past three races, and he has a great history of success at Dover (two top-10s with DEI in three races). Martin is money when he races, and it will be a whole lot of fun next year when he gives it just one more go with one of the "superteams."

Jamie McMurray (17.5) has not run well recently, but that is nothing new for the 26 team. It certainly looks like McMurray is a driver that has "his" tracks and struggles everywhere else. But Dover happens to be one of "his" tracks. He has two straight top-10s at the site and has five total in 11 Dover starts. Most weeks McMurray is an afterthought, despite running for Roush-Fenway. But Dover is one of the few places you can use him with confidence. The next time might just be Talladega.

Juan Pablo Montoya (17.2) is another driver who has not been terribly strong recently but has two strong finishes at Dover, both with the Car of Tomorrow. A strange stat, if you will: He finished 10th in this race last year and 12th earlier this year, and neither time did he finish on the lead lap. So clearly staying on the lead lap isn't that important at Dover, but Montoya can maneuver his car around this high-banked, one-mile oval well enough to at least keep with the lead lappers. He could deliver another top-15, and his price is right for a finish like that.

Apparently I called out the wrong Busch last week in the avoidance section. It was Kyle Busch who struggled, and Kurt Busch who had the strong run. All those Busches look alike! This week it's another high-risk call with Kevin Harvick (20.5). He has been running very well lately, but my biggest concern is his recent performances at Dover, which include four straight finishes of 20th or worse and a 38th-place finish this year. Dover is a tough track due to its high banking. When something goes wrong, it tends to feed problem cars down the track in front of other cars, and lately, those cars seem to be collecting the 29.

Jimmie Johnson (Locked at 22.8): Still my championship pick, so I'm sticking with him.
Greg Biffle (21.5): The next two weeks are places where he should do well. I'll probably drop him for Talladega, though.
Tony Stewart (Locked at 21.3): He finished ninth in this race last year and is really on a roll.
Martin Truex Jr. (Locked at 18.6): Another top-10, maybe even top-5, finish is in the offing.
Reed Sorenson (15.1): Not a huge amount of money left, and he usually finishes in the middle of the pack at Dover.

Kevin Rounce is an editor for ESPN Fantasy Games.